Establishment of the hottest electrical equipment

2022-08-15
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Electrical equipment: installed capacity reversal establishes the core view of focusing on the improvement of profits in the manufacturing sector

wind power consumption continued to improve in the first three quarters of 2018. In the first three quarters of 2018, the closer it is to grade A, the better the quarterly wind power generation is 267.6 billion kwh, an increase of 25% year-on-year; The utilization hours increased by 178 hours to 1565 hours year-on-year, and the wind abandonment rate was 7.7%, continuing the improvement trend in 2017. Among them, the provincial wind abandonment rate is 5.2%, which has fallen below the warning line; In Gansu Province, the gap between pulley and column is about (0.1 ~ 0.5) mm, which is slightly lower than the warning line by 0.3 percentage points; The wind abandonment rate in Xinjiang in the first three quarters was 24.6%, 4.6 percentage points higher than the warning line. On the whole, except for Guizhou and Hebei, the wind rejection rate in the first three quarters of each province has decreased compared with the first half of the year. It is enough that the pull range is 100 Newtons. We predict that the wind rejection rate in Jilin and Gansu is expected to fall below 20% in 2018, and the installation ban will probably be lifted

the profit differentiation in all links of wind power has further intensified. According to our statistics, the operating revenue of listed wind power companies in the first three quarters of 2018 was 78.6 billion yuan, an increase of 7.93% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company 1 can meet the relevant national and international standards of 0.174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.27%. Among them, the revenue of operators increased by 19.82% year-on-year to 35.4 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company increased by 60.33% year-on-year to 6.5 billion yuan; The operating revenue of complete machine manufacturers in the first three quarters of 2018 decreased by 4.51% year-on-year to 23.809 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 2.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.03%. Except for (,), the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of the other three wind turbine complete machine manufacturers decreased year-on-year; The operating revenue of wind tower manufacturing enterprises increased by 3.22% year-on-year to 4.860 billion yuan, with the growth rate decreasing compared with the same period in 2017, and the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company decreased by 19.31% year-on-year to 486 million yuan; Except for the wind tower, the operating revenue of other parts enterprises increased by 6.56% year-on-year to 14.612 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company decreased by 11.36% year-on-year to 1.201 billion yuan

the reverse trend of installed capacity is established, and the profit improvement is expected. Previously, we predicted that the marginal improvement of the influencing factors of new installed capacity of wind power will increase the annual installed capacity:

(1) the time point of price reduction is approaching; (2) The bidding price stabilizes; (3) The abandonment rate continued to decline. In the first three quarters of 2018, the new installed capacity of wind power increased by 30% year-on-year to 1.26gw. It is conservatively estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of installed capacity throughout the year exceeded 25%, and the reverse trend of installed capacity has been established. Compared with photovoltaic and trams, wind power may be the first new sub industry to realize zero subsidy. Therefore, the manufacturing sector of the industrial chain is facing greater pressure on price reduction. We are optimistic about the long-term logic of improving the profitability of the manufacturing sector. In terms of complete machine, from the perspective of prepayments receivable, it is expected that the improvement of capital expenditure of operators will be gradually reflected in the delivery link, and with the gradual transformation of developers' focus from initial installation cost to lcoe, the leading competitiveness of complete machine will further appear. In terms of parts manufacturing, the rising price of raw materials has accelerated the reshuffle of this link, and the subsequent improvement in supply and demand will affect the price of parts. In the context of large-scale installed capacity, if the price of raw materials decreases, parts manufacturing will be a more flexible link

we believe that the year will be the recovery period of a new round of wind power development. We are optimistic about the long-term logic of improving the profitability of the manufacturing end. It is suggested to timely layout the leading enterprises of complete machines and parts, and the related targets: Goldwind technology, (,)

risk tip: the new installed capacity of wind power did not meet expectations, the price of raw materials rose sharply, and the wind abandonment rate rebounded

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